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Four scenarios capture the main dynamics of conflict between Israel and the US on the one hand, and Iran and the axis of resistance on the other. They are: ‘a fight for the status quo’, ‘shifting red lines’, ‘limited war’ and ‘total war’. The first two scenarios amount to muddling
Scenario 1: Diplomatic De-escalation by Iran In this scenario, Iran, recognizing the brinkmanship’s risks leading to an all-out war with Israel, opts for a strategic de-escalation. The Iranian leadership initiates back-channel communications with Western powers, signaling a willingness to negotiate key issues.
16 Απρ 2024 · Iran’s direct military response to Israel’s attack on its consulate in Da-mascus, resulting in the death of prominent Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanders, represents a significant escalation with pro-found strategic implications.
In the "Strategic Assessment for Israel, 2022,"1 the IDSF-Habithonistim movement presented two possible scenarios for an impending war — a "Yom Kippur" scenario or a "Six. Day War" scenario.
Potential scenarios for Iran’s response include a direct high-impact strike on Israel, which could escalate into a direct confrontation between the two, a low-impact attack on an Israeli target, and a proxy coordinated attack by militant resistance groups led by Iran.
22 Απρ 2024 · This resumption of direct conflict comes a year after Hamas (an Iranian ally) led attacks from the Gaza Strip against Israel. Beyond Gaza and the West Bank, hostilities between Israel and Iran-supported groups (the self-proclaimed “axis of resistance”) have flared in Lebanon, Yemen and the Red Sea, Iraq, and Syria.
7 Αυγ 2024 · The hypothetical scenario of a conflict between Iran and Israel represents a critical flashpoint with the potential to reshape the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East and reverberate...