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Scenario 1: Diplomatic De-escalation by Iran In this scenario, Iran, recognizing the brinkmanship’s risks leading to an all-out war with Israel, opts for a strategic de-escalation. The Iranian leadership initiates back-channel communications with Western powers, signaling a willingness to negotiate key issues.
16 Απρ 2024 · Iran’s direct military response to Israel’s attack on its consulate in Da-mascus, resulting in the death of prominent Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanders, represents a significant escalation with pro-found strategic implications.
The October 7 massacre thus brought Israel into war on 7 Iranian fronts, the primary one being Gaza, the secondary one (for now) being against Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the others being against Iran itself, the Houthis in Yemen, and terrorists in Judea and Samaria, Iraq, and Syria.
26 Ιουλ 2022 · In this article, we overview historical preconditions of Iran-Israel relations, Israel's specific view of its ambitions in the region, and nowadays escalation between two countries.
22 Απρ 2024 · Escalation of the Israel-Iran Conflict. Updated October 29, 2024. Overview. In October 2024, Iran and Israel exchanged attacks for the second time this year (see Figure 1 and Figure 2), after doing so in April. This resumption of direct conflict comes a year after Hamas (an Iranian ally) led attacks from the Gaza Strip against Israel.
Four scenarios capture the main dynamics of conflict between Israel and the US on the one hand, and Iran and the axis of resistance on the other. They are: ‘a fight for the status quo’, ‘shifting red lines’, ‘limited war’ and ‘total war’. The first two scenarios amount to muddling
Iran has shared substantial rocket, missile and OWA-UAV capabilities with non-state partners in Gaza, Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen. These arsenals’ utility against Israel is mixed. The stocks of Gaza-based factions have been largely destroyed and depleted in more than six months of war.