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The Yield Curve as a Predictor of U.S. Recessions. An overview of using the yield curve as a forecasting tool. The article explains how the yield curve significantly outperforms other financial and macroeconomic indicators in predicting recessions two to six quarters ahead.
- Data & Indicators
A measure of disparities across four economic...
- Data & Indicators
5 Οκτ 2024 · In depth view into US Recession Probability including historical data from 1960 to 2025, charts and stats. US Recession Probability (I:USRPEM) 57.06% for Sep 2025
A measure of disparities across four economic outcomes—inflation, real and nominal earnings, employment, and real and nominal consumer spending. Regional Economy. Current economic data covering the Second District and local areas in New York State, New Jersey, Connecticut, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
9 Μαΐ 2022 · With elevated rates of inflation and heightened global economic uncertainty, recession concerns have been mounting. The New York Fed’s March 2022 Survey of Primary Dealers reflects this sentiment, with respondents seeing a 20% probability of the global economy being in a recession six months later, a notable increase from earlier surveys.
7 Σεπ 2023 · For example, at the time of this writing, the New York Fed’s website reports a 66% probability of recession based on the nominal 10-year-three-month yield spread using July 2023 data as the latest predictive information, with the model’s parameters estimated using data from January 1959 to December 2009.
14 Φεβ 2023 · The New York Fed's recession probabilities model looks at the slope of the yield curve—specifically, the difference between 10-year and 3-month Treasury rates—to estimate the...
1 Μαρ 2018 · In the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's December 2017 survey of primary dealers, the median probability attached to a recession in six months' time was 10 percent. Survey results are available at https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/primarydealer_survey_questions.html .
