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This model uses the slope of the yield curve, or “term spread,” to calculate the probability of a recession in the United States twelve months ahead. Here, the term spread is defined as the difference between 10-year and 3-month Treasury rates. Release schedule. We publish updates within the first two weeks of each month.
- Data & Indicators
A measure of disparities across four economic...
- Data & Indicators
5 Οκτ 2024 · US Recession Probability is at 57.06%, compared to 61.79% last month and 56.16% last year. This is higher than the long term average of 15.02%.
*Parameters estimated using data from January 1959 to December 2009, recession probabilities predicted using data through Sep 2024. The parameter estimates are =-0.5333, =-0.6330. Updated 03-Oct-2024
A measure of disparities across four economic outcomes—inflation, real and nominal earnings, employment, and real and nominal consumer spending. Regional Economy. Current economic data covering the Second District and local areas in New York State, New Jersey, Connecticut, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
12 Ιουλ 2022 · Probability of Recession Implied by NTFS, the Policy Gap, and Inflation Slope. Note: This chart depicts fitted recession probabilities, conditional on being in an economic expansion, using quarterly data from 1962Q2 to 2022Q1.
9 Μαΐ 2022 · With elevated rates of inflation and heightened global economic uncertainty, recession concerns have been mounting. The New York Fed’s March 2022 Survey of Primary Dealers reflects this sentiment, with respondents seeing a 20% probability of the global economy being in a recession six months later, a notable increase from earlier surveys.
The New York Fed uses the spread between the 10-year and 3-month Treasury yield to calculate the probability of a recession in the U.S. for the next 12 months.
