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Our medium-range forecasts consist of a single forecast (HRES) and our ensemble (ENS) which together give detailed information about the evolution of weather up to 15 days ahead.
ECMWF is the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. We are both a research institute and a 24/7 operational service, producing global numerical weather predictions and other data for our Member and Co-operating States and the broader community.
5 Μαρ 2024 · Since ECMWF medium-range ensemble (ENS) and high-resolution (HRES) forecasts now have the same horizontal resolution, we plan to stop using the term ‘HRES’. Find out about the time frame for this change.
Latest forecast. Experimental: AIFS (ECMWF) ML model: Temperature and geopotential at various pressure levels. AIFS (ECMWF): a deep learning-based system developed by ECMWF. It is initialised with ECMWF HRES analysis. AIFS operates at 0.25° resolution.
Latest forecast. Ensemble mean and spread for mean sea level pressure. Ensemble Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) is the mean MSLP of the ensemble members (in hPa) and detail is smoothed out. These charts show surface pressure patterns... Ensemble mean and spread: four standard parameters.
ECMWF strategy 2015-2025 is centred on ENS development; The horizontal and vertical resolutions of the medium range ensemble (ENS) became the same as for the HRES after the upgrade to IFS (Cy48r1) introduced in June 2023. The HRES forecast and the unperturbed ENS control forecast are meteorologically equivalent and equally skilful on average.
26 Αυγ 2018 · Thus, paradoxically for some, forecasting within this so-called deterministic limit of predictability has become inherently probabilistic. This paper focuses on the development of the ECMWF medium-range Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) (Palmer et al., 1992; Molteni et al., 1996).
