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In this article we back-identified periods of stock bull and bear market, rising and falling short rates and high and low inflation, all with the benefit of hindsight. We created a list of all these periods over the last 100 years, i.e. over the period 1926-2022.
Interactive chart of the NASDAQ Composite stock market index since 1971. Historical data is inflation-adjusted using the headline CPI and each data point represents the month-end closing value.
Back then, the level of growth (of both the global and the US economy) was significantly higher than it is in the current economic cycle. Indeed, in relative terms it was 30-50% higher – around 3-4% rather than some 2-3% and in Europe around 2-2.5% instead of 1-1.5%.
The NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee maintains a chronology of US business cycles. The chronology identifies the months of peaks and troughs of economic activity. Expansions are the periods between a trough and a peak; recessions are the periods between a peak and a trough.
The Center for Research on Economic and Financial Cycles provides a calendar of release dates (conditional on the availability of data) for the probabilities of recession and the business cycle indicator.
But a powerful common element runs through the long history of economic fluctuations around growth trends. At the center of business cycles are interacting movements in business profits, investment, and credit. Their rises are cumulative and mutually reinforcing, and so are their declines.
economy spent nearly every other year in recession. This article extends earlier efforts at redating for the 1796-1914 period using a single metric: Davis's (2004) annual industrial production index. The new chronology alters more than 40 percent of the peak and troughs and removes the most questionable cycles.
