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  1. 2 ημέρες πριν · For the first time since 538 published our presidential election forecast for Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, Trump has taken the lead (if a very small...

  2. 2 ημέρες πριν · An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency

  3. 2 ημέρες πριν · Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.

  4. 1 ημέρα πριν · This is the landing page for the 2024 Silver Bulletin presidential election forecast. It will always contain the most recent data from the model. 1. The model is the direct descendant of the f/k/a FiveThirtyEight election forecast 2 and the methodology is largely the same, other than removing COVID-19 provisions introduced for 2020.

  5. 1 ημέρα πριν · The methodology for 538's 2024 Senate election forecast model. ... Senate vote shares than a trendline adjustment for presidential election polls. ... to predict the wrong winner in 31 out of 449 ...

  6. 6 ημέρες πριν · A 538 Election Update for Friday, Oct. 18. The closest election of the century keeps getting closer. Two weeks ago, 538's forecast of the presidential election gave Vice President Kamala Harris ...

  7. 1 ημέρα πριν · Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are essentially tied — with neither candidate ahead by even a single percentage point — in The New York Times’s polling averages of five critical battleground ...

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