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Our Forecasts. China economic overview. The Asian powerhouse: China is the world's second-largest economy in nominal terms, behind the United States, and the largest when adjusting for purchasing power parity (which accounts for the cost of living).
19 Σεπ 2022 · We find evidence that mixed-frequency factor models provide superior forecasts of the CPI, RPI, investment, and consumption when compared to the simple benchmark. During the Global Financial Crisis period, we find little evidence of superiority of factor models over the simple benchmark AR(p) model.
1 Μαΐ 2023 · We evaluate the performance of various machine learning algorithms, dynamic factor models, static factor models, and MIDAS regressions in nowcasting the Chinese annualised real GDP growth rate in pseudo out-of-sample exercise, using 89 macroeconomic variables from years 1995 to 2020.
2 Φεβ 2024 · China’s economic activity rebounded in 2023 following the post-COVID reopening with real GDP estimated to have grown broadly in line with the authorities’ growth target of around 5 percent.
26 Μαρ 2022 · The paper first uses six variables as determinants: export value, real exchange rate, Chinese GDP, US IPI, and their seasonal variables, and uses three methods: BP neural network, ARIMA, and AR-GARCH to model China’s exports to the US and forecast the next period outside the sample interval.
Forecasts the performance of China’s major macroeconomic indicators from 2022 to 2023; Explores the impact of US and European economic slowdown on Chinese economy; Reviews China’s economic performance in 2022H1
24 Δεκ 2020 · Asger Lunde & Miha Torkar. 318 Accesses. 5 Citations. Explore all metrics. Abstract. In this work we predict changes in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of China using dynamic factor models. We report results of 3- and 6-months ahead forecasts, where we use \ (124\) predictors from various sources and dates ranging from 2000 through 2017.
