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This Paper is the result of the Bank of Italy-CEPR project to construct a monthly coincident indicator of the business cycle of the euro area. The index is estimated on the basis of a harmonized data set of monthly statistics of the euro area (951 series) which we constructed from a variety of sources. We use the information of this
We use the information of this large panel to obtain an indicator which has three characteristics: (i) it provides real time information on monthly coincident activity since it is updated as new information becomes available in a nonsynchronous way; (ii) it is cleaned from noise originated from measurement error and idiosyncratic national and se...
10 Ιαν 2024 · Eonia rate - Historical close, average of observations through period, Euro area (changing composition), Monthly
MLRG, is based on a large data set, including 145 euro-area macroeconomic variables. We construct a small number of smooth factors, which are generalized principal components of current values of the variables in the data set, specifically designed to remove short-run and variable-specific sources of fluctuation.
organized taking into account the calendar of macroeconomic data releases which is typical in real situations, with the aim of reproducing the staggered flow of information available through time to policy makers and market forecasters.
value added of this indicator, show how €-coin can be used for real-time monitoring of the euro-area economy, and compare its performance with that of other commonly used indices, focussing on the advantages of using a large dataset.
4 Οκτ 2024 · €-coin is a cyclical coincident indicator of euro-area economic activity that is updated in real time and released monthly. As such, it offers a monthly and timely estimate of the current state of the economy, free of short-term fluctuations.