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What is the likelihood that the Fed will change the Federal target rate at upcoming FOMC meetings, according to interest rate traders? Use CME FedWatch to track the probabilities of changes to the Fed rate, as implied by 30-Day Fed Funds futures prices.
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Get an overview of how to read and use the CME FedWatch Tool...
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- User Guide
Get an overview of how to read and use the CME FedWatch Tool to predict rate hike increase probability. Learn more.
31 Ιουλ 2024 · The CME FedWatch Tool is an online resource from the CME Group that gives investors, analysts, and economists a measure of the market's expectations for future monetary policy from the Federal...
2 ημέρες πριν · Using this information based on the federal funds rate, CME Group created the CME FedWatch Tool to act as a barometer for the market’s expectation of potential changes to the fed funds target rate while assessing potential Fed movements around FOMC meetings.
The CME FedWatch Tool forecasts the probability of a rate hike (or rate cut) at the FOMC meeting based on the prices of 30-Day Federal Funds (ZQ) futures released traded on CME. The futures prices reflect market expectations of the effective federal funds rate (EFFR).
Official CME FedWatch tool: DOES IT WORK? In sum, CME provides this tool to show the projections of next FOMC meeting Interest Rate. The projections are implied by Fed Fund Futures (a future contract related to Fed rate) prices. It's interesting that the current expectation of "75 points" is 96%, while it was 34% yesterday.
Staying abreast of how monetary policy influences the markets is a full-time job. That’s why many professional futures traders choose to outsource the analytics to an independent information provider. Learn more about how to use the CME FedWatch tool to trade FED Funds futures.
