Αποτελέσματα Αναζήτησης
5 Ιουν 2012 · Summary. Both laypeople and experts are often called upon to evaluate the probability of uncertain events such as the outcome of a trial, the result of a medical operation, the success of a business venture, or the winner of a football game.
1 Οκτ 1994 · Support theory argues that the judged probability of an event increases by unpacking that event (Tversky and Koehler, 1994). For example, describing the specific diagnostic tests covered by...
This theory, known today as Support Theory, has a foundational base in the articles of Tver-sky and Koehler (1994) and Rottenstreich and Tversky (1997), and incorporates features of cognitive processing, particularly Kahneman’s and Tversky’s sem-inal research on judgmental heuristics (as, for example, described in Tversky and Kahneman, 1974).
Presents a new theory of subjective probability according to which different descriptions of the same event can give rise to different judgments. The experimental evidence confirms the major predictions of the theory.
The investigation relies on the theoretical framework provided by support theory, a nonextensional model of judgment under uncertainty, to trace the relationship between assessed strength of evidence, judgments of probability, and decisions under uncertainty.
18 Ιαν 2019 · Chapter 13 (Support Theory: A Nonextensional Representation of Subjective Probability) shows that different descriptions of events influences individuals’ probability judgements. It formalizes descriptions of events and provides a theory how these descriptions influence our probability judgements.
1 Οκτ 2009 · Rottenstreich and Tversky (1997) and Tversky and Koehler (1994) presented an empirically based theory of human probability judgments that form the foundation for current support theory. Narens (2007) presented a radically different approach based on an event space of open sets.
