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5 Ιουν 2012 · Summary. Both laypeople and experts are often called upon to evaluate the probability of uncertain events such as the outcome of a trial, the result of a medical operation, the success of a business venture, or the winner of a football game.
Presents a new theory of subjective probability according to which different descriptions of the same event can give rise to different judgments. The experimental evidence confirms the major predictions of the theory.
1 Οκτ 1994 · Support theory argues that the judged probability of an event increases by unpacking that event (Tversky and Koehler, 1994). For example, describing the specific diagnostic tests covered by a...
The investigation relies on the theoretical framework provided by support theory, a nonextensional model of judgment under uncertainty, to trace the relationship between assessed strength of evidence, judgments of probability, and decisions under uncertainty.
Support theory represents probability judgment in terms of the support, or strength of evidence, of the focal relative to the alternative hypothesis. It assumes that the judged probability of an event generally increases when its description is unpacked into disjoint components (implicit subadditivi ….
Support theory provides a unified treatment of a wide range of empirical findings. The theory is extended to the assessment of upper and lower probabilities. Prescriptive implications are explored. Keywords: Subjective, Probability, Subaddidvity, Nonextensionality, Support.
13 Μαρ 1997 · To explain subadditivity in judgments of probabilities, support theory (Tversky and Koehler 1994) emphasizes the increased availability of information about component events. This paper demonstrates …
